Top Market Research Firm Predicts $57 Billion in Global Cannabis Sales by 2026
Recent forecasts from BDSA, a leading Colorado-based cannabis market research group, estimate that global cannabis sales will climb to $57 billion in 2026. Furthermore, by 2026, the United States market for cannabis will be worth $42 billion, accounting for 75% of the global market. Inflationary fears notwithstanding, legal cannabis sales in the United States are expected to reach $27 billion by the end of this year, a 7% increase over 2017's $25 billion.
When making his forecast, BDSA CEO Roy Bingham considered the difficulties the market is now experiencing. He made a public statement saying, "The 'hockey stick' trend of sales growth witnessed in the early years of legal cannabis has passed, and economic and regulatory headwinds are imposing pressure on legal cannabis markets." Our revised outlook still calls for single-digit annual growth in U.S. legal sales in 2022, with optimistic projections extending to 2026.
Factors like "price erosion in contexts with high retail per capita numbers" prompted revisions to the BDSA projections. Some states, like Oregon and Washington, have instituted freezes on license issuance to reduce chronic oversupply. While sales have slowed in more established markets like California, Colorado, Washington, and Oregon, the BDSA report found that sales are booming in emerging markets. For instance, sales in the Illinois market are projected to reach over $2 billion in 2022, up 14% from 2021.
BDSA predicts that new markets will be the primary source of growth until 2026, while the number of illegal states is rapidly declining. New Jersey began selling to adults in early 2022, and New York is anticipated to follow suit by the end of the year. When these two markets open, in two of the most populous states in the U.S., "about 22 million adults will have access to legal cannabis," adding an estimated $5 billion to the legal sales total of $42 billion by 2026.
Patients now have access to a wider selection, and lower pricing in nearby adult-use marketplaces, which directly impacts the medical market as more states legalize adult use. For instance, medical marijuana sales in Arizona have plummeted since the state authorized sales for recreational use at the beginning of 2021. Through Arizona, BDSA predicts annual dollar sales in the medical channel will be 30% lower than the annual dollar sales total in 2021, nearly half of the annual sales total observed in 2020, the last full year of medical-only sales. On the other hand, annual sales in Colorado's medical channel continued to rise modestly for close to two years after the state legalized marijuana for adult use in 2014.
